Written by Steffen Menzel, Anna Peran
In a pivotal speech delivered in Brasília on February 6, 2025, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell emphasized the unstoppable momentum of the global clean energy transition and the critical importance of nations submitting robust Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to uphold the Paris Agreement’s goals. His address underscored the economic opportunity driving climate action and the necessity for increased ambition as we approach key milestones like COP30 in Brazil.
In 2024, investments in clean energy infrastructure reached $2 trillion – double that of fossil fuels. Environmental concerns solely do not drive this shift but also economic self-interest: countries that embrace clean technology stand to gain from job creation, reduced pollution, and enhanced energy security. NDCs – or country transition plans – play a key role in delivering these goals and seizing the momentum of this transition for countries to maximize domestic benefits.
Mutually reinforcing catalysts for climate action: economic self-interest and climate cooperation
NDCs are more than a technical requirement – they are a cornerstone of global climate cooperation and national economic strategy. This latest round can provide a structured roadmap to 2035 and set important mid-term markers for national decarbonization pathways. Well-designed climate policy attracts investment, drives innovation, and creates long-term economic resilience. Nations that lead on clean energy will benefit from more substantial economic growth, energy security, and industrial competitiveness. As such, submitting robust and ambitious NDCs is in countries’ interests.
Moreover, investing in climate resilience and adaptation strengthens national economies by protecting infrastructure, ensuring food and water security, and reducing climate-related economic shocks. Adaptation planning is increasingly crucial as climate disasters escalate worldwide. And infrastructure investment, early warning systems, and climate-smart agriculture are key to strengthening climate resilience.
Non-state and subnational actors are already championing the transition
To complement and implement NDCs, cities, businesses, and regional governments play an increasingly vital role in achieving climate goals and ensuring a smooth delivery of the transition. Many have set ambitious net-zero targets and implemented policies that outpace national commitments. Public-private partnerships are also key in financing clean energy and resilience projects, unlocking the trillions needed for a just transition. Sectoral leadership initiatives in industries such as steel, cement, and transport are critical in setting new standards and pushing industries toward net-zero. These actors drive bottom-up momentum, ensuring climate policies translate into real-world action.
The imperative of submitting ambitious NDCs
This week – 9 months ahead of COP30 – marked the formal NDC deadline on the NDCs, the aim of which is to increase transparency and accountability under the Paris Agreement. Many countries missed this deadline. The important piece here is that delays should not excuse inaction or dampen ambition this year around the NDCs. Stiell stressed that “taking a bit more time to ensure these plans are first-rate makes sense” but that “at the latest”, they need to be submitted by September if they are to be included in the NDC Synthesis Report.
Major economies must lead by frontloading emissions cuts, updating 2030 targets, and accelerating net-zero timeframes. The UK set a high bar with an ambitious 81% emissions reduction target, setting the benchmark for other G20 countries to follow suit. On the other hand, New Zealand and Canada announced much weaker targets that prevent real domestic progress.
The UAE and Brazil, as COP29 and COP30 hosts, were the first to submit NDCs. While early action was welcome, both NDCs sidestepped the critical issue of fossil fuel phase-out despite the outcomes of the Global Stocktake and agreement to ramp up energy decarbonisation in the UAE Consensus. As self-called climate leaders, the UAE and Brazil must fill this gap in their NDCs, lead by example and drive ambition among other developing countries.
Key players still in the consultation phase – notably the EU, China, Japan, Australia, Indonesia and Mexico – have a chance to lead the way ahead for the next decade and signal a cycle of positive reinforcement for other countries to follow suit in their ambition. Indeed, the European Union and China’s commitments will be pivotal in shaping global ambition and clean tech innovation.
Look ahead
With COP30 on the horizon, ambitious NDCs and robust climate policies are more critical than ever. The goal is to build on the strong foundations established in the past decade, accelerate implementation at scale, and leave no one behind in the transition. Countries that act decisively will help avert the worst climate impacts and secure economic gains and global leadership in the clean energy race that is already upon us.
